Anonymous Iran

Coyote

More than “Velvet Revolution”: The Battle Within Iran’s Intelligence Ministry | Enduring America

More than “Velvet Revolution”: The Battle Within Iran’s Intelligence Ministry
Posted by: Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran

The Latest from Iran (29 July): Challenges Outside and Inside the Government

In a week filled with confusions, intrigues, and confrontations within the Ahmadinejad Government, this may be the most extraordinary story of all.

On Monday afternoon, the pro-Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz announced, “Coup in the Ministry of Intelligence”. While public attention was focused on the President’s firing of his Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, there was much more happening below the headlines. Two Deputy Ministers and a number of experts — Mowj-e-Sabz claimed more than 20 — had been “forced into retirement”.

The cause? Ministry officials had been told to compile a report, based on files and interviews of detainees, on whether the quest for a “velvet revolution” by outsiders was responsible for post-election conflict. Their investigations produced the answer: No. There was no proof that “foreign” elements had instigated the protests as part of a plan for regime change.

It was an answer that did not satisfy President Ahmadinejad. He dismissed the Vice Ministers of Intelligence and of Counter-Intelligence. According to Mowj-e-Sabz and other press reports, established a parallel service, “Tehran Intelligence”, led by Hojatoleslam Ahmad Salek and Hojatoleslam Hossein Ta’eb, both of whom are affiliated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Was this dispute over the “velvet revolution”, rather than the Cabinet argument over the First Vice President, the real reason for Minister of Intelligence Ejeie’s dismissal? Does the replacement of Ministry officials by activists close to the Revolutionary Guard, combined by Ahmadinejad’s assertion that the Ministry reports to him rather than the Supreme Leader, constitute a “coup” by the President and the IRGC against their own Government?

I’m not sure I would go so far as to answer “Yes”. But I do think that the irony is that any notion of an outside “velvet revolution” has been overtaken by an inside bureaucratic war. How far this war spreads could define the next phase of the post-election challenge to the Iranian system.

Bugs Bunny

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. I hope to have many new friends soon.

Landers

Normally I'd agree but in cases of the gov't, I feel like its several different sides dickering for power, and in this case, some academics got pinched for being honest.

__________________
------

When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.

Please help me design the Iranian deck here.

Bugs Bunny

And this refutes my statement how exactly?

Coyote

If the story is true, it means the pasdran are just tightening their hold on the government even more. These expulsions from ahamad's cabinet were not the result of infighting caused by dissatisfaction with ahamad, but the result of his own dissatisfaction with them for not being on board with the coup. So he kicked them out and replaced them with coup members.

Maybe it is not true, though. We'll see soon enough.

If they kick everyone with a shred of decency out of the government, and replace them all with guards and guard sympathizers, then that just draws the lines that much more clearly. But it also increases the chances of a bloody solution versus a peaceful one.

Landers

Because if one power chooses to shove out the power of the people I'm fighting against solely to take the reins themselves and rule as tyrants themselves, they have never been my friend nor ally.

__________________
------

When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.

Please help me design the Iranian deck here.

Bugs Bunny

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

What does this mean? It means that it is a good thing that they bite each other in the jugular and do away with each other.

It also means that, even if one enemy survives the jugular-biting episode, the numbers of the enemy have been greatly reduced.

This is a good thing.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is a metaphor for a good thing.

Do you understand now? Or would you like some cake?

Landers

Actually, it signifies an ally, someone who is ostensibly- for whatever reason- on your side about the particular matter. If a power is looking not to aid you, but simply grab it for themselves, they are in no way your ally. It has nothing to do with pitting them against one another, that's an entirely different metaphor.

And it's too early in the morning for cake.

__________________
------

When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.

Please help me design the Iranian deck here.

Unregistered

You two both lost me.

I'm thinking it is not a good that that ahamad is replacing honest people with sepah.

Bugs Bunny

I agree. It is also not good that the regime has been hurting other honest people.

But something more is going on with the regime. They are not just hurting honest people. They are hurting each other. They are hurting dishonest people.

If the regime is hurting each other, then that is good. Why?

Because, if they are busy hurting each other then they have less time, energy, resources to hurt us.

And, sooner or later one of them will destroy the other. This is also good. Why?

Because that means fewer enemies. Eventually, the enemies will be reduced to nothing.

Let's say we have 1000 enemies. If we can get 250 to fight another 250; and if we can get 250 more to fight the first 500, then that leaves only 250 for us to fight.

Would you rather fight 1000 enemies or only 250? That is what is meant by the expression: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. It's just math.